☕ Is this stock now the ultimate safe haven? 🤷🏻️
Oct 23, 2026Howdy! 👋
The headlines are in overdrive this morning, and I wouldn’t blame you if you thought that the end of the financial universe was upon us.
That’s what they’re designed to do.
Provoke your emotions.
So you’ll read along and, in doing so, justify the millions of dollars whatever news you’re reading makes in advertising… for the crew publishing it.
Wall Street, of course, loves this because they know that uncertain, emotional and scared investors tend to trade more which, in turn, produces billions of dollars in fees… for them.
Neither has anything to do with YOU making money.
So turn off the news if it bothers you and ditch your cell phone for the day.
Stop doom-scrolling.
Yesterday’s selloff was a drop in the bucket and entirely normal.
Today’s too.
Don’t believe me?
I get that a lot and won’t hold it against you but here’s the thing.
155 years of market data says otherwise.
Pointedly, the markets are anywhere from 2.8X to 1,714X higher today than the worst bottoms on record over that time frame.
What’s more, the markets have recovered 20 of 20 times… 100% of the time. 
One of my favorite adages is truer than ever.
Missing opportunity is always more expensive than trying to avoid risks you can’t control.
Here’s my playbook.
1 – Rotation is as real as a three-dollar bill
Yesterday was ugly, no doubt about it.
A quick look at the headlines and I see “rotation” screaming from one side of the Internet to the other.
Only “that dog don’t hunt” as my grandfather would say.
It sounds smart because it appears to be a logical explanation.
Rotation implies that the markets are a zero-sum game. The thinking is that if money comes out of tech, it must therefore go into value, or dividends or bonds or something else according to pundits, pontificators, and posers.
That’s not how the game is played.
The markets continually create new profits as prices rise and fall. That’s why – and to the point I just made with the chart above - long-term investing gains tend to overshadow short-term trading results.
The world’s most successful investors don’t have directional risk the way you’d think because they a) focus on quality names, b) control risk as part of the buying process over longer-term horizons and c) continually play offense even if they must think defensively to do it.
I encourage you to do the same dang three things.
What’s next?
The markets have a very defined upside bias over time, so it makes sense to play to that even if there’s more selling to come.
The only question you need to sort out is YOUR perspective.
- If you’re thinking 24 hours from now, the odds of a higher close are slightly more than 50/50... technically 53%.
- If you’re willing to give it 3–5 years, now you’re talking 83%.
- And if you’ve got a decade, the odds of a higher close rise to 93.4%.
- Twenty years and you’re talking 100%.
Keep it stupid simple.
And, btw, if you would like some help staying on track... or even just a kick in the asteroids ... I’m here. If you’re getting the results you want, then no harm done. I won’t be in the least offended.
Just know that you have a choice.
You can fight for Wall Street’s table scraps because you want to. Or, you can make a change because you’re ready to. People tell me regularly that One Bar Ahead® has given ‘em the calm and confidence to become a better and more consistent investor with the profit potential to match.
2 – Is this stock now the ultimate safe haven?
It’s hard to imagine, but I think there’s a good case Apple could now be the ultimate safe-haven stock.
Yep, those guys.
I’ve long made the argument but, and very predictably, it’s fallen on deaf ears.
Maybe this morning will be different, but what the heck do I know???!!! 🤷🏻
- Apple sat out the AI spending binge; critics said the company was failing, but I told you repeatedly that this was GREAT for smart investors. Wall Street expects Apple to report 2026 capex of about $12.9 billion, while Meta guided in January to somewhere between $115 billion and $135 billion for the full year. Hmmm. Guess which one sleeps better at night when investors start asking about return on all that money.
- Money is voting with its feet. Apple is up about 28% in 2026, roughly more than double the S&P 500’s advance and tops in the Magnificent Seven, a sharp turnaround from 2025 when an 8% gain left it near the bottom of the pack. Last week Apple rose 2% on strong demand for its foldable iPhone Duo while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 11%. That’s what a flight to safety really looks like in case you’re wondering.
- It’s a cash machine with a giant moat. Apple bought back $62 billion of stock in nine months, and its services business sits on top of 2.5 billion active devices. The company’s market value has now topped $5 trillion, making it only the second company to cross that line after Nvidia.
Apple makes roughly $835,000 every 60 seconds, according to its latest quarterly report.
Let that sink in.
The company has made more than $1,000,000 in the time it’s taken you to read this far.
You know what to do.
3 – So much for the “insider dump.” 🤷
Remember the panic?
The Internet was on fire earlier this year about how the stock would crater as SpaceX lockups start rolling off, billions of shares get “freed” and insiders stampede for the exits. And ahead of the company’s most recent earnings report.
Did they?
Nope (because – I submit – they have a good idea as to what the stock is really worth a few years from now).
Think about it.
SpaceX has 10 top insiders: officers, directors and the biggest holders. By law, they must tell the SEC about every sale within 2 business days. That’s what a Form 4 is.
No hiding.
Here’s what those 10 people filed:
- Elon Musk: Zero sales. (In fairness, his lockup runs until next summer. But still.)
- Gwynne Shotwell: Sold 342,170 shares she got from exercising old stock options, under a trading plan she set up back in June. She kept every share she already owned.
- Valor: Handed 42.8 million shares to its own fund investors. That’s a paper shuffle. Nothing was sold on the market.
- The other 7, including the CFO: Nothing. Zippo. Zilch. Not one filing.
And Form 144s?
That’s the notice an insider must file before a big planned sale and there’s only been one of those bad boys filed in four months.
One.
That’s the “insider dump.”
To be fair, I’m not saying nobody sold.
There’s no doubt in my mind that some employees and early backers below the reporting threshold almost certainly took some money off the table, but that’s entirely normal and reasonable. People buy houses. Pay for college. Diversify. You get the idea.
But the people running the show?
They’re holding.
Keith’s Investing Tip: You don’t switch horses in the middle of a race you’re winning.
4 – Why gold probably won’t protect you this time around
Gold is supposed to be the thing you run to when the world gets scary.
Well, the world got scary with another never-ending war in the Middle East, dinosaur juice over $100 yet again, inflation, a tech sell-off, Russia/Ukraine, China and a dozen other things making the rounds.
And gold?
Well, it’s still down roughly 25% from its January record.
Back in January, with gold above $5,100 and the crowd calling for the moon, I told you I thought we were very close to a sharp reversal. (See #5)
But “it’ll be back… won’t it”… millions of investors are asking this morning.
I’m not so sure.
Yesterday, when the big money went looking for safety, they bought US Treasurys, not gold. In fact, the 10-year yield dropped hard, which historically helps gold. Yet the shiny stuff fell more than 2% anyway.
Gold is a fear trade, and fear is a terrible investing model.
Keith’s Investing Tip: Gold is to investors what a popsicle is to kids on a hot summer day. Treat it accordingly… and eat your vegetables – meaning buy world class companies making “must have” products and services, that pay dividends or have a clear catalyst, that line up with the 5Ds, each of which is backed by trillions of dollars in spending that will continue practically no matter what.
5 – OpenAI is worth less to the big money
OpenAI is close to raising up to $30 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation, led by UAE investors and Coatue. (Read)
The company is calling it an “opportunistic” bridge ahead of a potential IPO.
A bridge to where, exactly?
Even the people running the show can’t get their story straight.
In August, the CFO told employees OpenAI “will be a public company in 2027.” A month later, Sam Altman said, “right now would be an ill-advised moment to go public.”
After that, it was damage control mode as OpenAI models began “escaping” – which by all reports continues today.
But yeah, buy the IPO???!!!
What’s interesting to me is that OpenAI’s valuations are apparently on the decline. (Read)
I don’t think the company is worth the paper its stock certificates will be printed on. But that’s just me.
Keith’s Investing Tip: Initial public offerings – IPOs – used to be great for investors but these days they’re one of the most rigged games on earth. Tread VERY carefully if you’re thinking about stepping into this one.
Bottom Line
If you are not investing while the chips are down, you will not be ahead of the game when they're up.
You got this — I promise. 💯
As always, let’s MAKE it a great day and finish the week strong!
Keith 😀
