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☕️ It’s Fed day and big tech earnings, here’s my plan!

Jul 29, 2026

Howdy! 👋

It’s game time… the indices are trying to rebound but gains are muted given higher oil prices as I type in the wee hours.

Par for the course.

It’s Fed day.

Forget about tech for a moment, Wall Street is laser focused on a single question… will it or won’t it raise rates?

The tide has turned from easy money to tight money which is suddenly somehow a virtue. 🤦‍

Like that’s a surprise???!!!

The Fed, as I have noted many times, is so far out to lunch that it is an insult to people who are actually out to lunch.

After years of mismanaging everything from transitory inflation to flip-flopping from rate cuts to rate hikes in the same six months, we’re suddenly supposed to believe it’s in touch. As my grandfather would say, “that dog don’t hunt.”

We will see one of two things yet again… complete monetary incompetence or outright political hostility. Perhaps a blend of both.

The setup is the real tell here.

Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50%–3.75% in a unanimous 12–0 vote at his very first meeting back in June, and the committee's own dot plot flipped from penciling in a cut to signalling a hike, with the median policymaker – yeah, those folks - now expecting 2026 to end higher than where we sit today. Nine of eighteen officials already have a hike on their cards for this year. 

Translation in plain English?

50% of the Fed is admitting in the only language they speak – rate projections – that it screwed up again.

What I’d like to see is a Fed that understands how real money works, policies that reflect reality and basic economic education for those who are in charge of our nation’s policies.

Supply shocks and tariffs are not the problem if you recall Econ 101.

The Fed has a fiscal problem.

Every point the Fed tacks on to defend against inflation adds to the government’s tab and as long as the latter keeps spending the former cannot do its job. That’s a lot like taking blood from your left arm and putting it in your right… and about as effective.

What’s an investor to do?

Two things:

focus on companies that can succeed practically no matter what the Fed’s next move is or isn’t; and,
use proven effective tactics that can help you build wealth and control risk at the same time.

People want to make investing complicated but it’s not when you get right down to it.

The markets have a very defined upward bias over time so it makes sense to focus on what you can control rather than worrying about what you can’t.

Don’t buy it? – pun absolutely intended.

I get it.

Here’s what you want to think about.

The Fed has never been able to permanently derail the stock market's long-term upward trend. Ever.

In 1994, the Fed doubled rates - the market went sideways, then surged more than 250% over the next five years.
From 2001–2003, the Fed slashed rates from 6.5% to 1% - the market still fell first, then doubled into 2007.
In 2007–2009, the Fed was “too slow” to cut - markets crashed anyway, then began a decade-long 400% rally.
In 2013, the Fed merely hinted at tapering - headlines panicked, the S&P still returned 32%.
Between 2015 and 2018, the Fed hiked steadily from 0% to about 2.5% - stocks kept rising, including multiple +20% and +30% years.
In 2020, the Fed cut rates to zero - markets crashed, then hit new highs within months.
In 2024, the Fed paused and pivoted to cuts - and the market still pushed to fresh records.

Zoom out across decades of hikes, cuts and pauses, and the story doesn’t change: the S&P 500 keeps moving up and to the right.

Anyhoooooo… I’ll get off my soapbox now.

My point is turn off the news or at least turn off the volume; it’s a great substitute for Animal Planet.

I’m headed out the door for my annual summer motorcycle ride this morning. My plan is to put down several thousand news free, hype free, earnings free miles.

I’ve got my LowBall Orders in place in case the markets put stocks I want to buy on sale when big tech earnings hit.
I’m reinvesting my dividends using TSY – True Shareholder Yield – at rates that in some cases dramatically exceed both inflation AND the yield everybody else chases. My research shows that can help boost performance dramatically over time which is why I rely on it as part of the investing process.
And most importantly, I believe I own the companies shaping the next century instead of longing for a return to the last one or investing like I’m still there.

Speaking of which.

My friend and colleague Scott “the Cow Guy” Shellady kindly asked me back to his show for a wide-ranging discussion about the circus – err, earnings – we’re watching yesterday. (Watch)

In case you’re wondering why “the Cow Guy” – that nickname comes from the old school pit jackets he wore when humans ruled the markets and machines didn’t. You had to earn those, btw. Traders wore ‘em so that they could easily identify each other in the chaos of open outcry… aka the “pits” where trading took place before the screens we use today.

And if you’re worried about the next 24-48 hours?

You’re not alone but you don’t have to be.

I suggest you re-read yesterday’s 5 with Fitz.

Take a deep breath.

Let everybody else worry about moments in time because the real money gets made over time. And owning the world’s best companies – meaning those making “Must Have” products and services – is how you get there.

Oh, and one more thing.

Did you catch Apple’s brilliant move yesterday?

The company plans to lease iPhones for $17.99 a month through a partnership with Klarna. (Read)

This’ll be great for margins over time but ultimately, it’ll pale in comparison to profits that’ll explode when the iPhone becomes prescribable as the company continues the medical pivot I first outlined in 2014 and that’s now gathering steam.

Apple’s flirting with all-time highs again and I don’t think the go-fast traders will be able to resist some short-term earnings related shenaniganry. That’s why I suggest “baiting” your hook ahead of earnings with a few well-placed LowBall Orders to take advantage of any short-term pullback or downdraft they engineer.

Btw and a quick reminder… I sent out a special alert outlining specific price points on four great companies – including Apple – to the One Bar Ahead® Family yesterday so check your email if you’re an OBAer. 😀