☕️ Micron: A high probability trade idea
Jun 23, 2026Howdy! 👋
My exact words in Monday’s M5…
“I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect a short-term pullback... Get your buy list ready for one simple reason.
The markets are the only “store” on earth where people fear a sale.”
Well, guess what?
Looks like we may have a “sale” on our hands today.
I LOVE investing!
People want to make building wealth complicated but what they don’t realize is that it doesn’t have to be.
There are only two things you’ve got to get right if you want to be successful in the markets.
History is very clear.
- First, you’ve got to constantly play offense and be willing to buy when others want desperately to sell and sell when others are falling all over each other to buy.
- And second, keep risk as low as possible by controlling risk as part of the buying process not an afterthought.
Look, days like today can be scary but they don’t have to be if you have a plan.
That’s the operative part… if you have a plan.
Most investors fail for one simple reason… lack the long-term vision needed to get through short-term chaos.
You got this!
Here’s my playbook.
1 – A high probability Micron trade idea
The fabulous Stuart Varney asked me point blank ahead of yesterday’s opening bell if I’d buy Micron and my answer was simple… no, I don’t like to chase stocks powered by FOMO. (Watch)
Micron is down about 9% in pre-market which smells like opportunity.
Call me crazy, I know.
But that’s how the game is played.
Ya buy low and sell high.
People wanna gussy that up with all sorts of discussion about valuations, technical indicators, moon phases… whatever.
Doesn’t change the fact that volatility is the price of admission.
I laid out three distinct scenarios and three separate trade ideas for the One Bar Ahead® Family in yesterday’s update.
Now, I’ll add a fourth.
Volatility has risen sharply in overnight markets, which means that Selling Cash Secured Puts or Put Spreads could work beautifully if you’ve got the chops.
What I like about ‘em – the Selling Cash Secured Puts – is that they’re a high probability strategy that can work perfectly in high volatility environments, particularly when you want to define risk and put a little extra effort into controlling your entry.
Aspiring traders and investors often push back when I bring up Selling Cash Secured Puts and I grin every time knowing that the average individual would rather swing for the fences on a long shot than take a repeatable high-probability trade that pays a little nearly every time.
It’s not a wonder why Vegas keeps building bigger casinos. The math in situations like this isn’t complicated but discipline sure as heck is. 🎯
Keith’s Investing Tip: Learning how to trade around core investing positions is one of the single most important skills any investor can learn imho… even if they have no desire to be a “trader.” Trading isn’t just about profit potential; the part people tend to miss is all about risk control and what that means for your bottom line over time.
2 – Google: the smartest people in the room just left the room
Alphabet (Google’s parent company) had its worst day in over a year.
Two of its most important AI researchers just walked outta the door – in the same week. (Read)
Noam Shazeer, co-lead of the Gemini AI model, left for OpenAI. John Jumper — Nobel Prize winner, co-creator of AlphaFold — left for Anthropic after nearly nine years.
These aren't easily replaceable people. Shazeer helped build the model Google is betting its future on. Jumper won a Nobel for work that could reshape medicine as we know it.
And then Satya Nadella poured salt in the wound. In a Sunday Wall Street Journal interview, he said AI models are becoming commoditized — cheaper, more interchangeable, less defensible.
I don’t have any interest in that debate.
Alphabet is committing nearly $200B to AI infrastructure this year, but the two people who arguably knew best how to use it just packed their bags and left. 🤦
That’s very expensive real estate with no architects.
Keith’s Investing Tip: I’d rather own the shovel makers’ shovel makers. AI models are a commodity or dangerously close at this point.
Don’t understand the distinction? I submit you’d be wise to learn and I’ll be here if you’d like some help.
Meanwhile, $275 a share if it doesn’t hold $340?
I wonder.
3 – Oracle, in crisis or quite the opposite?
Oracle has cut ~21,000 jobs – representing nearly 13% of its entire workforce. (Read)
Look deeper.
Team Ellison knows something.
Oracle posted $3.7 billion in quarterly net income — up 27% year over year. It's spending $70 billion on AI data centers. Capex jumped 162% last year. Free cash flow went negative. They raised $50 billion to fund the buildout.
If it were anybody else, I’d pass.
Here’s the thing.
Oracle has a long history of identifying big opportunities in fragmented industries… PeopleSoft, NetSuite, Cerner… and so on.
The pattern is always the same.
Bold action that is expensive, appears confusing to outsiders and… yep, very probably the right move at the right time.
Hmmm. 🧐
Keith’s Investing Tip: Keith’s Rule of the Back Page applies. It’s exactly what it sounds like – meaning that it can be profitable to look beyond the headlines to the back pages because by the time something’s on the front pages it’s often too late.
4 – Palantir’s two new deals = plenty of profit potential
When the super savvy Stuart Varney asked me yesterday whether I thought Palantir was overvalued, my reply stunned a lot of people.
I think Palantir is “very undervalued.” (Watch)
Deals like the two new ones announced in the last 24 hours are part and parcel to my thinking.
- Palantir and Zeta global announced a partnership – Zeta’s entire data cloud is being rearchitected on Palantir’s Foundry. (Read)
- The U.S. Army has selected Palantir's Foundry as the foundational cloud data layer for NGC2, its top modernization priority, with Anduril's Lattice handling the tactical layer. (Read)
Like a lot of folks, I hate the price action lately but seems to be that the quantitative picture has nothing to do with the business case for owning it.
Keith’s Investing Tip: If you can’t see the forest for the trees, change your view. The markets have a funny way of rewarding people who do.
5 – Softbank’s Masayoshi Son just picked a fight with Elon Musk – good luck with that!
Masayoshi Son — the man who turned $20 million into $60 billion on Alibaba, then torched nearly $70 billion on WeWork — stood up at a shareholder meeting this morning and declared that Elon Musk's space data center idea is, well, dumb.
His argument?
The only advantage of orbital data centers is cheaper electricity. But power is a small fraction of data center costs compared to hardware. Whatever you save on the electric bill, you hand straight back in launch costs, maintenance, and communication delays. (Read)
Good luck with that.
Keith’s Investing Tip: Love him or hate him, the people who have said Musk was wrong about EVs, about energy, about data, about robotics and more have a perfect record… of being wrong.
Bottom Line
Short term fear always makes long term opportunity cheaper!
Now and as always, let's MAKE it a great day. 💯
You got this — I promise!
Keith 😀
