☕️ Nvidia: I’m not the only one with big numbers 🎯

Howdy! 👋 

As you know, I’ve been concerned about the possibility of a correction, however slight. And I’ve repeatedly said that it wouldn’t be because of markets themselves. 

This morning certainly qualifies. 

All three indices are down as I type as global traders reset “risk” in keeping with Iran’s latest posturing… and I’ll have more on that in a moment. Oil has jumped, too. 

Meanwhile, keep your eyes on the upside because that’s where the real action always takes place. So it makes all sorts of sense and cents to play to that idea. 

• There have been 1,044 rolling 5-year periods since 1926, and the S&P 500 made money 87.5% of the time.  
• There have been 984 rolling 10-year periods since 1926, and the S&P 500 made money 94.1% of the time.  
• And here's the real eye-opener: there have been 864 rolling 20-year periods since 1926, and the S&P 500 made money 100% of the time.   

The “yeah but” crowd will naturally take issue with this but that’s nothing new. 

My point stands. 

Short term fear always makes long term opportunity cheaper. 

Here’s my playbook.  

1 – The most important thing in markets this week 

The super-sharp Stuart Varney kindly invited me back again this morning and asked me what this week in the markets is really about and where I see ‘em heading next. 

Hint... it’s not the Fed, earnings or AI. (Watch) 

Stuart also very kindly asked me about “Fitz” – aka the Fitz-Gerald Must Have Portfolio® (NYSEArca: FITZ) which launched last week.  

Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. For a prospectus or summary prospectus with this and other information about the Fund, visit www.fitzetf.com or https://nicholasx.com/fitz/. Read the prospectus or summary prospectus carefully before investing. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. Distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC. 

2 – “50 times bigger than dot-com” 

I thought I used big numbers, but this takes the cake. 👏 

SoftBank's Masayoshi Son sat down with CNBC in Paris and said something worth writing down: the AI revolution is — and I'm quoting here — "50 times bigger than dot-com."  

That would mean we're talking about a wealth creation somewhere in the neighborhood of $250 trillion. To put that in context, the total value of global stock markets today is ~$148 trillion. 

I’ve been saying AI may just be the largest investment opportunity in recorded human history for a number of years and that brain cramp is increasingly becoming the narrative. (Watch) 

Here's the part Wall Street still just can’t fathom. 

Like me, Son isn't worried about a correction but expecting one. And also like me, he's calling it the best buying opportunity he's ever seen.  

Hopefully you’ve got this covered with your own investing because odds are good you will not get a second chance for decades, perhaps not in your lifetime. If you don’t (have this covered) and you’d like some help, thousands of investors regularly tell me that what they’ve learned as a member of the One Bar Ahead® Family has changed their life, given them the confidence needed to invest calmly and consistently. Perhaps you’ll find that helpful, too. 

3 – Nvidia just made the move Intel should have 

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang walked onto a stage in Taipei this morning and said Nvidia is reimagining the PC "for the first time in 40 years." 

He isn’t kidding. 

In fact, I think he’s understating things. 

The RTX Spark is Nvidia's first consumer PC chip in decades and it’s a ginormous deal because it’s a CPU, GPU, and AI processor — all one chip.  

This matters because it can run massive AI models locally on your device – something I have been laser focused on for a long time now. 

No cloud.  

No subscription.  

Your data stays put.  

Private. 

Over 30 laptops and 10 desktops are already lined up for this fall. 

Huang's vision – and mine – is simple: your PC stops being a tool you operate and starts being a teammate that works for you. AI agents handling your inbox, your creative work, your code — running entirely on the device in your hands. 

Nvidia has returned ~890.65% since I bought it to the OBA Family’s attention, compared to 80.43% from the S&P 500. That means a $1,000 investment in Nvidia back then would be worth ~$9,906.50 today. The same $1,000 put in an S&P 500 index fund would be worth ~$1,804.30 today. 

And don’t forget that my favorite fruity computer maker has 2.5B installed devices – the largest consumer base in human history – and they too are working on bringing AI “down” outta the cloud. 😀 

Keith’s Investing Tip: I am often asked if a 0.75% management fee is worth it when investors tell me they can put their money in an S&P 500 index fund for 0.03%. Well, in this case, I can give you $8,102.20 reasons why. Do yourself a favor. The problem isn’t fees, but the way you’re thinking about ‘em. Don’t be penny wise and pound foolish as the old expression goes. The right managers can be more than “worth” it. 

4 – “Everybody hates housing” – Berkshire just wrote a $6.8B check 

Warren Buffett has made an art form of buying when others can’t stand it. Now, his protégé and newly seated CEO Greg Abel has taken a page from that playbook. 

So, I can’t say I am surprised to learn that Berkshire Hathaway is making a run at Taylor Morrison Home in a deal worth $6.8 billion. (Read) 

I’m not surprised – I think very similarly. 

One of my mentors used to refer to putting your money on the table when everybody else is looking scared “buying at points of maximum pessimism.” 

The thesis is very simple. 

Berkshire has always wanted to own the picks and shovels in any industry and prefers to buy when the chips are down for the simple reason that they won’t be… one day. 

Hmmm. 🧐 

Keith’s Investing Tip: I am frequently asked about hot stocks but that’s the wrong question. Like Buffett, Templeton and Mobius, I’d rather own the stuff that’ll be there when people need ‘em. 

5 – Bears are positively gonna hate this chart 

The bears love to tell ya that the sky is falling and come up with no end of creative ways to do it. 

Me? 

I’d rather focus on the data. 

Like this little tidbit. 

The average bull market since WWII has been 3.6 years – but critically – the average duration of bull markets that have made it this far (where the S&P 500 is today) has made it an average of 7.1 years. 

And, btw, 4 of the 7 bull markets I am referencing started in October, same as the current one. 

Point being… the current bull market could be just barely ½ way to the finish line if it follows prior bull market history. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Investing in optimism is always better (over time) than cowering in fear (at moments in time). Buy the best, ignore the rest!® 

Bottom Line 

There will be more profits created in the next 10 years than the last 50 combined. 

Aligning your money with where the world is going has never been more important.   

Or potentially more profitable. 

Now and as always, let's MAKE it a great day and start the week strong – you got this! 

Keith 😀