Straight to your inbox from Keith himself!

*Trusted by tens of thousands of savvy investors and traders around the world every day

☕ Nvidia’s big day and why – gasp – I walked away from Meta

Aug 24, 2026

Howdy! 👋

I’ll keep it brief since I’m on the clock and need to head out the door shortly for San Francisco where I’ll be speaking at the San Francisco MoneyShow as well as meeting up with members of the One Bar Ahead® Family.

Not that any of this is a surprise but…

Iran — Two ceasefires collapsed, the Strait's still basically a parking lot, and Brent's back near $87. The SPR just dropped below 300 million barrels – lowest since 1983 – so Washington's cushion is thinner than a Wall Street excuse. Buckle up – and invest accordingly. Dividends, in particular. (Read)
Canada tariffs, now???!!! — Talks blew up Saturday night, US President Donald Trump slapped 50% on $20 billion of Canadian goods. Carney's promising to match it "dollar for dollar." Nothing says "great ally relationship" like trading barbs over hockey sticks, honey and whisky. Sigh. 🤦‍️
Bessent's $1 trillion parlor trick — He's eyeing the Treasury General Account to fund bond buybacks instead of issuing new bills, which is a fancy way of saying "we'll juice yields lower without admitting we're juicing yields lower." The bond market noticed. Yields dipped. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me as the old saying goes. Keep duration short as I’ve repeatedly recommended. The Fed is all but irrelevant at this point, save the fact that you can watch a presser with the volume turned off and have a great substitute for Animal Planet.
Alibaba — Raised $10.2 billion at an 8.4% discount to fund its AI habit, and the market's response was a 10% face-plant. Turns out investors don't love dilution any more in Hong Kong than they do on Wall Street. Some things really are universal but I’ll still take the other side of that bet all day long – the money's going straight into the one part of the business that's actually working. Case in point, Cloud Intelligence Group external revenue is running around 40% year-over-year, and management just posted its eleventh consecutive quarter of triple-digit AI revenue growth. Not a business in trouble imho. Just short-term spreadsheet vigilantes who can’t cope with actually thinking longer than a gnat.
Nvidia, the marquee event this week — Will it make or break the so-called “AI trade?” Wrong question… the one you want to be asking is whether it’ll be there years from now when you need it; I believe that the answer is almost certainly yes. I think we’re going to see perhaps 100% growth top and bottom line. 75% margins may improve, too. Meanwhile, shares have returned ~13,656.45% over the past 10 years which means that every $1,000 invested back then is now worth ~$137,564.50 today. The SPY, a popular passive investing choice for many, has returned – a still very respectable but far less – ~311.10% by comparison. The game is still early days. Buy the best, ignore the rest!®

Here’s more with the fabulous Ashley Webster ahead of today’s opening bell. (Watch)

Oh, and I almost spaced it.

Ashley wanted to know if I really sold outta Meta.

Yep.

I think there’s an increasingly high probability of an adverse ruling in California – one that could result in as much as $1.4 trillion in fines at a time when the company is valued at $1.4 trillion as I type. Not a lot of room, imho.

Call me crazy but I think that could result in a 20-50% hit in two stages.

One immediately and one over time, particularly if the ruling forces a change in operations – which I also think is increasingly likely.

Btw, I’ll have some additional thoughts on Wednesday from San Francisco so please stay tuned if you’re an OBAer. Meanwhile, and if you’re interested in a speculative trade idea to help capitalize on the chaos that’s almost certainly on the horizon, please check the latest OBA Update.