☕️ SpaceX is fine – the analysts are the problem

Howdy! 👋 

We’ve got a holiday-shortened trading week on our hands, as the markets are closed in observance of Juneteenth on Friday. But that doesn’t mean it’ll be a light week. 

There’s plenty of money on the move. 

Stay focused – your portfolio will thank you! 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Rallies create more… rallies 

I sat down for a wonderful conversation with the super-savvy Stuart Varney this morning ahead of today’s opening bell. There are loads of great names on the move including two I’m watching very closely for surprising reasons even though I don’t own either at present. (Watch)  

And just in case you are not an OBAer, here’s something that the One Bar Ahead® Family knows very well… big rallies tend to create bigger rallies over time and this one could have even more staying power than usual.  

2 – SpaceX Is Fine — The analysts are the problem 

SpaceX rewrites history, and now the spreadsheet gang wants to debate valuation. 

Morningstar has apparently slapped a $63 per share price target on shares, calling it significantly overvalued because of GAAP losses and a 100X multiple. 

How predictable. 

Seems to me that’s a lot like rating the Wright Brothers airplane on fuel economy. 

SpaceX controls the orbital launch market, owns the fastest-growing satellite internet service on the planet, and is building AI infrastructure in space that doesn't exist anywhere else… none of which you can model with a discounted cash flow spreadsheet using accounting rules built for plow horses and steam engines. 

SpaceX is not a conventional company, so it makes no sense to apply conventional metrics to the analysis. Besides and not for nothing, the markets haven’t been about “valuations” for decades, especially when it comes to tech. 

• Amazon: Traded at 300–500X earnings for years while analysts screamed "overvalued." Anyone who waited for a "fair" multiple missed a 200X return. 
• Netflix: Wall Street couldn't figure out how to value a DVD-by-mail company pivoting to streaming. The old models said sell. The new reality said buy. 
• Tesla: Analysts debated valuation for a decade while the stock went from $17 to $400. The spreadsheets were right the entire time but the investors who listened to ‘em were broke or at least left at the station. 
• Nvidia: As recently as 2022, analysts were calling it overvalued at $150. It hit $974 then split. The DCF crowd missed the entire AI buildout. 
• Palantir: Traded at an absolutely eye-watering multiple — at various points in 2025 it was trading at 300–400X forward earnings, which made the valuation crowd apoplectic. It went from $7 a share to a peak of $207 anyway. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Invest in where the world is going, not where it’s been. Companies that break the rules are best judged by investors who are willing to entertain new information, not reach for the same old toolkit. 

Btw and if you’re an OBAer – meaning a card-carrying member of the One Bar Ahead® Family – please keep an eye on your email. I’ll have a few special thoughts on SpaceX later today. 

3 – Fox just bought the front door to 100 million living rooms – brilliant! 

Fox Corp. announced this morning it's acquiring Roku for $160 a share — roughly $22 billion. (Read) 

Roku isn't just a little streaming device but the platform sitting between 100 million households and everything they watch. Live sports. Breaking news. Netflix. Disney+. All of it flows through Roku.  

MyPOV?  

I’ve had a front row seat for years and thousands of appearances as the network has grown. 

What critics don’t grasp is that Fox has the content people still watch live — news and sports. The two things you can't DVR your way out of.  

Hmmm. 🤔 

4 – Peace in Iran / G7 

Like millions, I hope so. Then again, we are talking ‘bout Iran. (Read) 

Sets up a super interesting G7 imho. 

Keep an eye on oil, defense and finance. 

5 – Warsh on the Fed: More thinking, less talking 

Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says he wants to see the Fed do less talking and more thinking. (Read) 

I say about time. 🎯 

Years ago, I raised a lot of eyebrows when I pointed out that there was a direct correlation between the amount of yapping – specifically the word count in Fed statements – and S&P 500 performance. And I said that the smartest thing any sitting Fed Chair could do would be to take away the mic which, naturally, went over like a lead balloon. 

That’s still true. 

The more the Fed says, the less investors made, but if Warsh succeeds it stands to reason that the markets could do well by folks smart enough to be in ‘em. 

Bottom Line 

You can be an investor or a speculator, just not at the same time.  

Make your choice ahead of time… or the markets will when you least expect it. 

Now and as always, let's MAKE it a great day and start the week strong.  

You got this — I promise! 

Keith 😀