☕️ The biggest, most telegraphed investment opportunity I’ve ever seen
Aug 10, 2026Howdy! 👋
It’s a mixed market day as traders await a deal on Hormuz and more Fed follies. Meanwhile, JPMorgan raised its year end forecast for the S&P 500 up 3% to 8,000 from 7,800.
Nice to have company, especially since we’ve been talking about that for the better part of 8 months already. Still, I’ll take it.
FactSet reports that 88% of S&P 500 companies have reported, with 86% of those beating on earnings and 76% beating on revenue as of last Friday.
More impressively, the blended year-over-year earnings growth rate is 50.4% — the highest since Q2 2021, when the economy came roaring outta Covid and posted 91.6%.
The naysayers aren’t “buying” it and that’s on them both literally and figuratively.
If you are not investing while the chips are down, you will not be ahead of the game when they're up.
Here’s my playbook.
1 – Congratulations to Nvidia’s bubble babblers! 🙄
Congratulations to those who have insisted that NVDA is a bubble from the very beginning. 🤦♂️
Still, the valuation crowd has a hard time letting go.
I get it.
The concept of valuations has been sacred ground for 100+ years of investing history and, if you’re talking tractor parts and other hard goods, still is.
But digital spend?
Not for at least a decade.
That’s even more reason to focus on what happens next, particularly with a company like Nvidia.
Nine months ago, in a Five with Fitz, I was saying that Nvidia is approaching $5T. (See #2)
Now we are approaching $5.5T.
Nvidia has returned a whopping 951.95% since I bought it to the OBA Family’s attention, compared to 95.94% from the S&P 500.
A nearly 9.9 to 1 beat.
That means a $1,000 investment in Nvidia back then would be worth ~$10,520 today. The same $1,000 put in an S&P 500 index fund would be worth ~$1,959 today.
I only hope I’m smart enough to buy more.
2 – The most telegraphed investment opportunity I’ve ever seen
Okay sports fans, this is going to go down as one of the biggest single “trades” in history.
One that will not have any middle ground.
Elon Musk just announced that Starlink will be in every car and the President of SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell, recently announced that SpaceX is going to take huge swathes of the mobile market away from long entrenched competitors.
This could be the biggest “pairs trade” in history – certainly in my career.
I think investors will want to own at least some SpaceX while anybody and everybody who owns anything in the conventional cell phone space – Verizon, T-Mobile, AT&T and American Tower – had better give some serious thought to whether or not those stocks are hidden portfolio killers because they may not exist in 5-10 years.
Keith’s Investing Tip: Whenever you see a shot across the bow like this one, smart investors would be wise to believe it’s for real. Or risk paying a terrible price and watching their wealth get destroyed in disbelief.
3 – Intel just told you exactly how expensive the AI race has gotten
Intel is raising $15 billion by selling new shares of its own stock. (Read)
Intel says it's for "general corporate purposes."
Ummm…
Don't buy that at face value.
Intel's data center business grew 59% last quarter, and the company's chasing custom chips, advanced packaging, and wafer capacity for other companies who need it. In other words, Intel doesn't need the money because it's struggling (any longer).
Intel needs the money to keep up.
Shares have done well over the past 12 months – returning ~369.69% – and I laud CEO Lip-Bu Tan for making some smart moves. But I can’t shake the nagging feeling that the company wouldn’t exist if Unka Sam hadn’t come to the table when it did.
Generally speaking, I prefer names that are so strong they do not need that kind of lifeline, but that’s just me.
Meanwhile, tip o’the hat to everyone who owns Intel! 😀
4 – Microsoft: yet another example of why I insist that you buy high-quality names when they’re beaten down
I regularly encourage investors to ignore the naysayers and focus on buying the best, especially when good companies get beaten down for no company-specific reasons.
For example…
Back in March, and again in June, I said several times on air during various appearances that I believed that Microsoft would hit $500 a share this year. It was trading at roughly $350-$380 if memory serves.
Microsoft closed at $499.99 last Friday.
Not too shabby.
That’s nearly 11% over five days and roughly 30% over the past month, riding Azure's acceleration and the broader AI infrastructure trade.
To be fair, I could easily have been wrong for the simple reason that this is an incredibly tough business. So there is that and neither here nor there.
What’s next?
People worry that Microsoft is a dead cat bounce, but I am not one of ‘em. My new target is $718.22 within the next 12-24 months but – importantly – $1,000 by the end of the decade.
Keith’s Investing Tip: People come up with all the reasons they shouldn’t buy this or that stock, ETF, etc. Respectfully that’s the wrong question. The real question you want to ask if you’re in to win – which I advocate btw – is why wouldn’t you? Investing in optimism beats cowering in pessimism over time.
5 – Palantir: up 40% last week & still plenty of room to run imho
Last Monday I told the fabulous Stuart Varney that I thought Palantir would a) have great results and b) that buying it could be a smart move. (Watch)
Both came to pass.
Team Karp did post amazing results, and the stock ran 40% higher last week.
I recall when moves like this took a year or two but, then again, I am a card-carrying member of the grey beard club.
Many investors struggle with this concept because they subconsciously long for market conditions they’ve known their entire lives… only to have ‘em ripped away and replaced by a world that is rushing towards us.
My latest research suggests that time/volatility may be compressing as much as 10 to 1; last year it was roughly 4 to 1 according to my research, btw.
People instinctively think that the way to handle this is to focus on increasing minutia, but that’s a mistake. Doing so means you’re going to be competing with Wall Street’s top quants and their super computers.
I submit that it’s better “when in doubt to zoom out.”
Buying great stocks is only half the battle… actually about 1/3rd … the rest’ll come down to how you play the game and when.
The next time the short squad surfaces – and they will – just remember who told you the truth. 😀
Keith’s Investing Tip: The key to beating Wall Street at its own game is twofold. First, zoom out so that you avoid the noise. And second, use tactics that they can’t counter and have no interest in fighting like those we talk about constantly as a backbone in One Bar Ahead.®
The latest issue just published last Friday if you’re part of the OBA Family.
And if you’re not a part of the OBA Family, I respect that because presumably you know what you need to know to be a super effective and super consistent investor.
Bottom Line
Many people feel the compulsion to “do something” especially if they’re new to investing or trading.
Not true.
In fact, some of the best decisions are to do nothing.
Owning the right stocks can give you the confidence needed to do that while others are running around like headless chickens in the proverbial barnyard.
Chances are you know what I am talking about if for no other reason than we have ALL been there at one point in our investing journey. Yours truly included. 🤦
As always, let's MAKE it a great day and start the week strong! 💯
You got this — I promise.
Keith 😀
