☕️ Three things Burry gets wrong (again)
Aug 11, 2026Howdy! 👋
I’m a little later than I’d like getting this out today – thanks for understanding.
Sometimes ya just gotta check the data…. again.
Here’s my playbook.
1 – What the bears still can’t grasp but smart investors should
We’ve talked about this a lot and there’s no sense in me yelling from the rooftops any longer. Either you get it or you don’t.
S&P 500 earnings may exceed 32% this year, up from just 15% that the boffins thought was possible last January.
What you want to focus on is something that we talk about dang near incessantly. AI is going to alter the course of our planet and investors who recognize what’s happening will have a very different outcome than those who fight the system.
The narrative I laid out on CNBC years ago that raised eyebrows long before anybody else on Wall Street I was aware of even remotely latched on to what I was talking about is now mainstream. (Watch)
2 – Palantir: 3 things Burry gets wrong again
I joined the venerable Stuart Varney ahead of today’s opening bell for a look at two topics making the rounds… what Burry’s getting wrong about Palantir and why SpaceX’s lockup didn’t produce the wave of selling “everybody” expected. (Watch)
I expect some big numbers for both companies by the end of the decade. 😀
3 – Most investors could double the shares and still not have enough
Nvidia signed deals yesterday with six of Wall Street's largest money managers – Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR – to build financing platforms that could funnel more than $500 billion into AI infrastructure. (Read)
Critics are blathering on about so-called circular financing – which demonstrates a complete lack of understanding about what that actually is – but I digress. 😀
Here’s the meat of the matter.
Many of Nvidia’s customers need more chips and data center capacity than they can pay for in cash. Thanks to Nvidia, they will now be able to go to the new independent financing platforms set up by Nvidia and the six big Wall Street firms to borrow the money.
The customer then uses that borrowed money to buy Nvidia chips and build the data centers. Over time, the customer repays the lenders with interest using the revenue generated from running AI workloads on those chips.
Nvidia itself does not lend the bulk of the money so there is no impact on its operations nor immediate impact to its balance sheet. In fact, in some cases it may even offer limited residual-value support (up to 25% of a deal) to make the financing more attractive to the banks even though the primary capital and risk assessment comes from Wall Street firms.
CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC, “ this is really the first time that technology chips have become an investable asset class." (Read)
I agree.
Only we’ve been talking about this for the better part of several years.
Chips have always been an investable class in my mind. Wall Street has simply never had that brain cramp because they consider ‘em a product whereas I consider ‘em a “must have” product and service.
Big difference.
Dare I say it, most investors could double the shares they have invested in various companies in this space. And yes, probably still not have enough.
There is one caveat and, admittedly, it’s a big one… not all tech is the same, so please pick carefully.
Buy the best, ignore the rest!® applies.
Keith’s Investing Tip: Many investors spread their money around because they’re playing not to lose. The problem – especially in a situation like this one – is that that leaves them with a little of everything and not enough of stocks that’ll actually move the needle.
Tons of folks think they have this covered, but very few do.
If that’s appealing, interesting or even helpful, you might enjoy One Bar Ahead® like other investors do. Particularly if you want to be ahead of the herd, not stuck fighting for Wall Street’s table scraps.
4 – The GLP-1 war just went global – here’s who I’m backing
Eli Lilly’s Foundayo just won its first approval outside the U.S. – the U.K. gave it the green light, making it only the second oral GLP-1 weight loss pill approved anywhere in Europe. (Read)
Novo got there first and racked up roughly 300,000 U.K. patients started on the Wegovy pill in its first three weeks alone.
But Foundayo's got one real advantage in that there are no food restrictions.
You see, the Wegovy pill has to be taken on an empty stomach, first thing in the morning, water only, nothing else for 30 minutes. Foundayo skips all that.
I’m excited.
The oral GLP-1 category is still in very early innings. Injectables still dominate today, but pills remove the biggest barrier (needles) and should significantly expand the total addressable market over the next 5–10 years.
Convenience is the competitive advantage, and Lilly’s got it.
5 – Florida borrowed a joke from Seattle, and it still works
Real estate agents in Seattle put up a billboard back in 1971. It read: "Will the last person leaving Seattle turn out the lights."
Boeing had just gutted its own workforce, and the city was the punchline of the moment. But the “line” has outlived every headline it was mocking and been recycled for every declining city that’s come after.
Florida just borrowed it.
Fox Business is reporting that the state's Chamber of Commerce named NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani its "Economic Developer of the Year" on a Times Square billboard, thanking him for the jobs, companies and residents leaving New York for Florida. (Read)
As you know, I do money, not politics so let’s keep any keyboard punches above the belt as the old boxing expression goes.
What strikes me is the pattern sitting underneath the punchline.
You see, every time a city or state gets mocked on a billboard for losing its people, two industries show up on the other end of that migration and quietly go to work: the companies that rent the trucks, and the companies that hold the boxes.
Moving and storage stocks have tended to hold up – sometimes thrive – in three specific environments: credit crises, mild recessions, and rate-cut cycles layered on top of ongoing migration.
For example, during the 2008 credit crisis, public self-storage REITs fell an average of just 11% while the broader REIT index fell 37% and the S&P 500 fell 57%. In the early-1990s recession, storage revenue kept climbing even as the wider economy stalled, because downsizing households needed somewhere to put their stuff. And every time rates have turned lower while migration stayed hot, the sector has caught a second wind.
The setup right now – a Fed edging toward cuts, and people still moving south in large numbers – checks two of those three boxes at once.
Here's where I'd start looking:
- AMERCO (UHAL) — the parent of U-Haul, the largest do-it-yourself moving and storage company in the country, with roughly half the market.
- Avis Budget Group (CAR) — owns Budget Truck Rental, the second-largest truck rental network in the country, alongside its car rental business.
- Public Storage (PSA) — the largest self-storage REIT, with a fortress balance sheet and heavy exposure to Sun Belt migration corridors.
- Extra Space Storage (EXR) and CubeSmart (CUBE) — the next tier of storage REITs, both riding the same demographic wave.
Again, forget about politics.
The billboard is a thinly veiled joke but the moving trucks aren't.
People who leave high-tax states for low-tax ones need a truck to get there and a place to put what doesn't fit in the new house right away. People on the move don’t care who's in the White House, Gracie Mansion, the Governor's mansion in Tallahassee or any other mansion for that matter.
Hmmm… 🤔
Keith's Investing Tip: Trucks and boxes have outlasted every city that's ever been told to turn out the lights. But kept ‘em on anyway.
Bottom Line
Opportunity tends to show up where and when most people least expect it.
As always, let's MAKE it a great day! 💯
You got this — I promise.
Keith 😀
