☕ Time to switch horses or stick with winners? What smart investors know

Howdy! 👋 

My grandfather used to say that the markets are a lot like playing a country dance song backwards… the dog comes home one day before leaving the next, the truck works only to have the wheels fall off and the harvest comes in on its own but the tractor is missing. 

I won’t hold it against you if your head is spinning lately from all the up and down. 

Mine too. 

The smartest move you can make is also deceptively simple. 

Stay focused. 

Wall Street wants you making decisions by the seat of your pants because it makes you easier to separate from your money. That’s nothing personal… it’s their job. 

I say don’t give ‘em the satisfaction. 

Buy the best, ignore the rest®. 

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Time to switch horses or stick with winners? 

I sat down with Luke Lloyd yesterday who was sitting in for my friend and colleague Scott “the Cow Guy” Shellady on RFD TV. Luke wanted to know how I see the markets currently… as setting up for something worse or a reset for something better. He also asked me about new opportunities I see on the horizon. (Watch) 

2 – The markets won’t likely struggle with tariffs, but pundits will

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says that the recently announced 15% global tariffs will start this week. (Read) 

Pundits are already lining up and whining up. 

Let ‘em. 

History shows very clearly that tariffs are a lot more effective than legions of hand-wringing economists, pundits and pontificators think. And have been for centuries.  

To be fair, I don’t like ‘em any more than the next person but that doesn’t change the facts. 

Something I wrote about in great detail on January 19th.  

I am often asked, but how can that be? 

Simple. 

The markets constantly focus on what comes next. 

History shows very clearly that tariffs – like other taxes, policies and emotional inputs – come and go. Profit potential, on the other hand, is a permanent fixture. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: We’ve seen this same playbook a dozen times before... and no, odds are, it won’t be different this time despite what people think or are prepared to believe even when presented with the facts. Smart, profitable, successful investors know the difference. So be smart and keep your emotions outta the equation! 

3 – Gold isn’t confusing, but the media circus is 

One of the biggest single problems with today’s news cycle is that it’s not news. 

It’s all about the eyeballs. 

Conflicting stories and images are the norm, not the exception. 

Here’s an example from Reuters just yesterday. 

Always take a moment to pause and read – yes, read – rather than simply reacting to headlines that are clearly designed to prompt an emotional response rather than prudent financial decision making.  

Keith’s Investment Tip: The sooner you learn to be leery of the “headline hustle” the sooner your portfolio can thank you. 

4 – Buh-bye Uber, Lyft and Waymo 

Tesla’s Giga Texas Cybercab line has now shifted into higher-volume test production. (Read) 

How high? 

Try a new unit off the production line every 10 seconds when the line is running at speed. 

Waymo, by comparison, doesn’t make cars at all but retrofits existing vehicles into robotaxis one by one. 

Uber and Lyft? 

Both rely on conventional cares that take hours or days to build on an auto line… and still require humans to operate ‘em. 

How passé. 

Unka Elon recently said "Hold on to your Tesla stock. It's going to be worth a lot, I think. That's my bet." 

I agree. 

$600.  

Despite what a lot of folks seem to think, the markets don’t reward incumbents forever when there’s a new player rewarding scale, technology and cost advantage.  

Keith’s Investing Tip: History shows very clearly that producing the future is far more profitable than longing for the past. So invest in optimism. 

Trade Idea: I’d encourage you to think very seriously about Lyft and Uber if you own ‘em. I don’t see this ending well. Short, avoid, or even consider buying Putskies – meaning put options, a bet that the stocks decline. 

5 – CrowdStrike: Sellers still don’t get it but buyers sure as heck do 

We talked about CrowdStrike last week during the selloff and I said — very specifically — buy CrowdStrike… using the right tactics to control risk naturally. (See #5). 

Apparently, some folks still prefer panic to profit. 

My reasoning was simple then and it’s simple now. 

Sellers are kidding themselves, but I don’t hold that against ‘em because it means more opportunity for those in the know. As the old saying goes, you can lead a horse to water… 

CrowdStrike just reported earnings and — in my best Gomer Pyle voice, surprise, surprise, surprise — beat on both the top and bottom lines. (Read).

• Revenue: $1.31B, up 23% YoY 
• 50% of customers now use 6+ modules 
• Record operating and free cash flow 

But the real tell? 

ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) — the lifeblood of a subscription company — hit $5.25B, up 24% YoY. That’s the largest quarterly ARR growth in company history and makes CrowdStrike the first pure-play cybersecurity firm to clear $5B+. 

Better still, the company added more than $1B in net new ARR in a single year for the first time ever. 

In other words, the company was growing like crazy while the nervous nellies were busy selling fear and headlines. Hopefully you weren’t one of ‘em. 

You know what to do and hopefully you know how to control risk while doing it. 

If not or you’d like some help, I’ll be here if you need me. 

Speaking of which and if you’re an OBAer, stay tuned. I’ve got a new, last-minute recommendation that could be perfectly timed given global markets at the moment. 

Bottom Line 

People are so busy trying to predict the unpredictable that they forget to think about the profitable. 

You got this – I promise! 

Now and as always, let’s MAKE it a great day. 

Keith 😀