☕ What to make of tariffs and where do the markets go next?

Howdy! 👋 

Well, well… what d’ya know? 

Another tariff tantrum. 

Classic knee-jerk selloff on uncertainty. 

Think like a shark, not a minnow. 

Every dip is opportunity knocking and always will be for those buying the right companies and with the right perspective. 

The court’s ruling is unfortunate because it introduces uncertainty, not because it’s one way or the other… and traders hate uncertainty. 

Smart investors, on the other hand, love it. 

Why? 

Short term fear always makes long term opportunity cheaper. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – What to make of tariffs and where do the markets go next? 

I sat down once again with the super smart Stuart Varney ahead of today’s opening bell. He very kindly asked me back to discuss tariffs, Nvidia and Home Depot. 

My take may surprise you. (Watch) 

2 – Nvidia: the bears will ultimately get burned just like they always do 

Nvidia reports on Wednesday post market and it may be the single biggest, most watched call of the week. You can tune in here.  

People who are selling Nvidia have lost sight of the plot. 🤦‍♂️ 

Nvidia’s 

… selling every chip it makes 

… gross margins are 70-75% 

… has half a trillion dollars of orders on the books, a massive backlog that locks in future revenue 

… poised for yet another blowout quarter with revenue likely hitting or exceeding the $65B guidance (and potentially pushing toward $66B+ based on consensus whispers), driving 65-70%+ YoY growth while EPS lands around $1.50+, up ~70% YoY. 

Short-term, I think traders will run prices up into earnings this Wednesday then use any excuse they can fabricate to take ‘em lower after a great call… guidance, tariffs, the price of a double expresso, half latte in Vienna and green doors in Australia.  

The bears will ultimately get burned just like they always do. 

Meanwhile, I’m perfectly happy to continue to buy shares. 

Trade Idea: Buy calls into earnings, then make a quick pivot to puts. If there’s a drop, use the proceeds from one or the other to buy more shares.  

Investing Idea: This isn’t rocket science. Continue to accumulate on pullbacks. Nvidia has returned ~24,569.54% over the past decade and could easily do so again imho. 

OBAers, you know the playbook – and the specialized high probability tactics to make this a winner. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Nvidia is one of the most widely held stocks in the world at this point for one very simple reason… AI demand shows no signs whatsoever of slowing.  

3 – Novo just paid 15% to learn what we already knew: Lilly’s Tirzepatide is the bigger needle 

Novo Nordisk just dropped 15% after its next-generation weight-loss drug, CagriSema, failed to prove it wasn’t inferior to Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide. (Read) 

Patients lost 23% of body weight on Novo’s 2.4 mg dose. Lilly’s drug delivered 25.5% at 15 mg. 

I’ve said before that Lilly has the upper hand in this space – most recently in December 2025. (See #3) 

Hopefully, you’ve paid attention. 

Case in point, Lilly, btw, just launched a new form of obesity drug Zepbound with a month’s worth of doses in a single pen. (Read) Zepbound brought in $4.2B in Q4 alone, a 122% jump from last year in US revenue. 

Weight-loss drugs are attracting competition like flies at a picnic which sounds great right up until you realize that margins compress when everybody shows up. 

I’ll pass, albeit with a tip of my hat to those who own Lilly because it’s executing well and playing offence, no doubt. 

Here’s why I say that. 

Investing is a constant balance between the best opportunities you can find, not a popularity contest.  

As great as weight loss drugs seem, the oncology market is considerably bigger and potentially far more profitable to my way of thinking. 

That’s why I prefer a triad of oncology-focused names I already own that, in my view, offer stronger total shareholder yield, broader exposure across multiple cancer pathways, platform-level upside, durable patent and IP leverage, deeper pipeline optionality and multiple shots on goal.  

If you’re an OBAer, you know what those names are and if not, but you’d like to be a part of the OBA Family, I’ll be here. 

4 – Bitcoin: How low can it go? 

Bitcoin is down again to $65,871.69 as I type. 

So much for the safe haven/digital gold argument that so many have stubbornly advanced over the years. 🙄 

It’s a ~60% drawdown from highs of ~$126k set last October. 

People will undoubtedly disagree with me, but I think it could get a whole lot worse from here before it gets better. 

I’m beginning to think $30,000 a coin isn’t implausible if liquidity tightens further. 

1. Miners and companies holding big amounts of bitcoin on their balance sheets may have to sell just to stay afloat and the first whiff of that will send people running for the exits. 
2. Quantum computing is coming online, and that means more downside pressure absent an upgrade (even though, to be fair, that could be years away). 
3. Bitcoin’s next halving mechanics and a 21M coin cap are programmed scarcity, and corporates now hold about 18% as a hedge against fiat currency debasement which sounds great until you realize the system is riddled with leverage ranging from futures contracts to ETFs to options and even corporate loans backed by BTC collateral. 

If you’re an OBAer, please keep an eye on your email for today’s update and additional thoughts on this subject. Oh, and the trade ideas I suggested on Friday look to be a winner so we’ll address that, too. 

5 – High tax states are losing $1,000,000 an hour in income 

You often hear me say that, “money is like water in that it will flow to where it’s treated best.” 

Makes sense right? 

Even so, this number caught me by surprise. 

New York, Illinois and California are losing $1,000,000 an hour in income migration according to Florida Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Mark Wilson. (Read) 

I don’t doubt it. 

Makes me think that investing in packing boxes, tape and storage units could be a handy, profitable play once again. 

Hmmm. 

“Stay and pay” isn’t as compelling as, “see ya.” 

I’d also be worried for anybody who owns municipal bonds in the highest taxation states because the highest earners are voting with their feet, which means fewer wealthier residents to service all that debt. 

My fear – and I really hope I’m wrong here – is that suddenly all those “safe” muni start to look like bets on cities where people are dumb enough to stick around. 

It’s the boiling frog scenario. 

Money flows out, the water heats up and suddenly AAA dreams turn into junk bond nightmares. 

Double hmmmm. 

Trade Idea: Shorting municipal bonds is a nonstarter because of the risks involved and how fragmented the muni markets are. But selling or simply not buying state-specific funds like iShares California Muni (CMF), New York (NYF), or Illinois-focused ones could be just the ticket. If you're already long munis nationally, rotate out of high-tax state exposure into lower-tax or national short-duration funds. It's passive aggression via allocation. 

Oh, and while we’re at it, consider investing in cardboard boxes, packing tape and storage units. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Markets are like Las Vegas hotels in that you never want to bet the house stays full when guests are loading the U-Haul. 

Bottom Line 

Many people worry about how far stocks can fall when the selling starts.   

Flip that around.   

The biggest bounces often come from quality stocks that get hit hardest.   

Your job is to make sure you know how to find 'em and to invest while others are looking the other way. 

Gritting your teeth is optional but probable. 

Patience and discipline are still two of the most undervalued assets on Wall Street today. 

Now and as always, let’s MAKE it a great day and start the week strong. 

You got this – I promise! 

Keith 😀