☕️ Will Palantir go higher? Plus, IonQ and gold

Howdy! 👋 

JPM CEO Jamie Dimon is warning that, “Somebody will disrupt the market” because of the incredible amount of leverage in use at present. (Read) 

I agree. 

Only somebody already did disrupt the market. 

Chances are you heard about the recent blow up of Situational Awareness, a tech fund started by wunderkind Leopold Aschenbrenner. He blew out a $45 billion AI hedge fund — that was reportedly leveraged up to 400% — that Ken Griffin’s Citadel picked up for pennies on the dollar. 

Not a coincidence that Citadel just reported a phenomenal quarter. (Read) 

Here’s the deal. 

You can cower in fear when you hear comments like Dimon’s and see stuff like Aschenbrenner's crash and burn. Or you can invest in optimism like Citadel. 

Three guesses which course of action is likely to be more profitable over time? 

First two don’t count. 

Btw, there are probably 2 - 3 dozen other funds like Situational Awareness out there, any one of which could let go at any time. Which, when you think about it, also means that you’ve got another 2 - 3 dozen new opportunities ahead to prepare for. 

People think you make your money in bull markets, but the real profits get made when the bears come out to play. 

Here’s my playbook.  

1 – IonQ: 5 consecutive record quarters 

IonQ reported earnings and the only thing the naysayers have gotten right is that they’ve been consistently wrong. Most still are, in fact. 

Team De Masi just reported its 5th – yep count ‘em up – consecutive quarter of record profits. (Read) 

• Revenue came in at $80.1 million — up 287% year over year  
• Full-year guidance got bumped to $280–290 million. 
• International revenue, commercial revenue, and multi-product revenue all grew. Remaining Performance Obligations — basically the backlog of signed-but-unbilled contracts — jumped 297% year over year. 
• IonQ also closed its acquisition of SkyWater Technology, turning it into what the company calls the first vertically integrated, full-stack quantum platform. Think Tesla owning its battery supply chain, or SpaceX building its own engines instead of buying them off the shelf. 
• And this one's interesting — IonQ signed a memorandum of understanding with Anduril to develop quantum tech for defense and national security. The two are now pursuing joint proposals for mission-critical government contracts. (Read) 
• IonQ also inked a deal with Sandia National Labs on quantum co-design. (Read) 

Defense and national security aren't side projects or science experiments like so many think. They’re increasingly the main event. 

And if you don’t have exposure, you’re kidding yourself. 

Buy the best, ignore the rest!® 

You know what to do… or at least I sure as heck hope so. 

We’ve been talking about this one in One Bar Ahead® from the very beginning and long before the masses caught on. Anybody who’s been following along has had several opportunities rack up 100%+ winners using the FreeTrade, a tactic I pioneered and first shared with retail investors more than two decades ago.  

2 – No way… Peloton and profits in the same sentence??!!! 

Peloton actually turned a profit. (Read) 

I know… I can’t believe it either. 🤷🏻‍♂️ 

• Full-year net income: $63.2 million, up from a $118.9 million loss the year before. 
• Fourth-quarter revenue beat too, coming in at $608 million against the $598 million Wall Street expected.  

CEO Peter Stern calls it the year Peloton "grew up." 

Shares dropped 13% anyway. 

It’s not hard to understand why. 

Smart investors know that grown-ups need a plan at a time when management just told everyone sales are heading lower again, guiding to $2.3–2.4 billion versus the $2.42 billion analysts wanted. 

“We’ve had some luck, but it won’t last” is what I’m hearing.  

I've told you to avoid this one like the plague since 2020 for one simple reason. 

Bolting what is effectively an iPad on a bike isn’t innovation… just a “n+1” meaning another iteration that merely tweaks a category that ensures the company must fight a dozen other brands for scraps. 

I prefer “zero to 1” when it comes to investing. 

Like Nvidia, Palantir and Apple – for example – that have created returns of ~583,541%, ~1,567% and ~485,486% since they IPO’d and, in doing so, made plenty of everyday investors millionaires. 

But hey, it’s a free country. 🙄 

3 – Gold's on a mini hot streak but still down ~24% from its most recent peak 

Gold just closed its fourth straight winning session, sitting near a seven-week high around $4,268 an ounce. (Read) 

The gold bulls are doing victory laps.  

I’d temper that. 

Two things are doing the lifting: 1) a weak ADP jobs report that's got traders betting Warsh skips a rate hike in September, and 2) hopes that Iran and Oman are close to a deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz. 

Notice what's not on that list.  

Nobody's buying gold because they suddenly trust it again. They're buying it because rates might stay lower for longer and the world got a little less scary this week. That's a liquidity trade, not a gold thesis. 🤔 

Last January I told you point blank to expect a 20-50% pullback from the peak of ~$5,590. And, predictably endure no end of trolling, nasty commentary and more. 

Well guess what? 

We're sitting right in the middle of that range. 

Trade Idea: Putskies when the crowd gives up (recognizing that they may not). 

4 – Will Palantir go higher and should you buy it? 

I’m getting flooded with questions now that Palantir is $158.43 a share now that it’s had a big run. 

Here’s the rub. 

Smart investors got excited under $120 and thrilled under $110. 

If I’ve said it once, I’ll say it 1,000 times, keep your dang emotions out of the equation. 

Your portfolio will thank you.  

Keith’s Investing Tip: FOMO is not an investment strategy. Buying low and selling high, on the other hand, most definitely is. So’s the discipline needed to stick to the program. 

Speaking of which…

5 – Please join me in San Francisco 

I have no idea if what Mark Twain said is true… the coldest winter I ever spent was summer in San Francisco. 

Let’s find out. 

Please join my bride and me. 

I’ll be speaking on two important topics… a) Beyond AI: Where to invest NEXT in the Tech Sector and about b) How to buy the first stock you plan to own for the rest of your life. 

My bride and I are planning to be there all three days so there will be plenty of time to chat about markets, money, martinis and motorcycles… plus, of course, anything else on your mind. 

Hope to see you there! 💯😀 

Bottom Line 

Many aspiring investors and traders want to be right and spend inordinate amounts of time trying to make their case.  

That’s excellent, but not exactly on point.   

The most successful money mavericks concentrate on being profitable, even when they’re wrong and even when stocks they’ve purchased are going against 'em.   

It’s a nuance, but one that can make a huge difference. 

Especially when you own stocks making “must have” products and services that the world can’t live without. 

As always, let's MAKE it a great day! 💯 

You got this — I promise. 

Keith 😀