☕ Worried about mid-terms, here’s what the numbers say
Nov 03, 2026Howdy! 👋
Split markets as we head into the opening bell.
That’s about right.
Traders are repricing risk which means Apple – a key Dow component – is dragging the Dow Jones Industrial Average – while both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are higher as smart investors look beyond the short-term shenanigans.
When bulls and bears fight, it’s inevitably the chickens who get slaughtered.
Stay focused!
Here’s my playbook.
1 – Palantir just put up its first $2 billion quarter. Ever.
I was very specific on Monday during an appearance with the super-savvy Stuart Varney noting that CEO Alex Karp would probably "put more numbers on the board”.
And he did.
$2,000,000,000 in one quarter. (Read)
To put that in perspective, the latest results are roughly equal to what the firm generated in all of 2023.
- Revenue of $2.31B, +96% YoY
- U.S. commercial revenue of $984M, +148% YoY
- U.S. government revenue of $953M, +96% YoY
- Commercial revenue topped government revenue for the first time
- GAAP net income of $1.13B, a 49% profit margin
- Net dollar retention of 165%
- $10.4B in cash, equivalents and Treasuries, with no debt
- Raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to roughly $8.53B
All from a company the doomsayers were positively convinced was at the end of its rope.
What’s next?
Karp is already lacing up for the next race noting, “This moment, remarkable as it is for us, remains the first scene of a first act. It is our firm and unwavering intent to take the entire market, the whole thing.”
Bring it! 💯
You know what to do… and if you don’t for some inexplicable reason at this stage of the game, where to find me.
2 – Team Ternus just beat its own numbers
Yesterday was newly seated CEO John Ternus’s first earnings call.
Apple beat its own projections… never mind the analysts.
- Revenue of $114.5B, +12% YoY, ahead of Apple’s own 9–11% guidance
- iPhone revenue of $57.6B, +17% YoY, a September-quarter record
- Services revenue of $31.6B, +10% YoY, an all-time high
- EPS of $2.10, +14% YoY
- Greater China revenue +21% YoY
- 2.5B+ active devices and 1.5B+ paid subscriptions, both all-time highs
- $479B in revenue for fiscal 2026, Apple’s best year ever
Remember when China was supposed to be Apple’s undoing and when the boffins were convinced that iPhone sales would be the company’s albatross.
I can think of at least one pontificator who steadfastly insisted that Apple was “dead” money… and funny enough, now he’s flipped hoping scores of investors will never notice. 🙄
Apple made roughly $234,000 in profit every minute of the quarter.
Depending on your reading speed, that means Apple has made somewhere between half a million and a million dollars by the time you’ve read this far or listened this far to the audio version of the 5 with Fitz.
What’s next?
I told Stuart Varney yesterday morning I wanted to see two things: what Apple expects for the holidays and what it’s spending. (Watch)
On the holidays, Apple expects December-quarter revenue to grow 7–10%, which management says would be the best quarter in company history.
On spending, this is the part to watch. Memory chips are getting a lot more expensive, and Apple expects its gross margin, the share of each sales dollar it keeps after making the product, to slip to 45–46% from 47.9%.
Ternus didn’t sugarcoat it: “What we’re seeing with memory pricing right now is unprecedented.”
This is where the market lost it.
Here’s the thing.
Margins tell you what this quarter costs. The installed base tells you what the next decade is worth.
Don’t do something stupid and don’t confuse the two.
3 – Hackers just turned Europe’s supermarket fridges into ovens
I’ve insisted that you take cybersecurity seriously, noting repeatedly that the really vulnerable stuff in the world has nothing to do with military or financial targets.
Many investors still don’t believe me.
That’s on them.
Here we go again.
Supermarkets in Belgium, Luxembourg, Sweden, Finland, Ireland and Estonia were hit by a cyberattack Monday that remotely cranked up fridge and freezer temperatures. One store reportedly hit 50°C (122°F). (Read)
It’s the second time in a month.
Millions of Euros in food got tossed and spoiled.
Now here’s the part that gets me.
According to one cybersecurity advisor, this wasn’t a sophisticated hack. The fridge controllers sit right on the public internet. The vendor issued a fix in August, and thousands of units never got the update.
France’s cyber agency told operators to pull the devices off the internet three weeks ago.
Management is the fool here.
Hmmm 🤔
Picks and shovels.
Keith’s Investing Tip: Every hack like this one turns cybersecurity into an “even more” must-have, and you don’t need to chase whichever cyber name is in the news this week. Own the best in the business, and let the bad guys do your marketing.
The OBAers know my preferred choice. It’s returned 415.92% since I brought it to the OBA Family’s attention early in the game versus the S&P 500 which has turned in 71.24% by comparison.
The game, imho, is just getting started.
4 – Time to buy Pfizer?
Pfizer was a fave of mine for a long time.
Loads of investors still own it.
On the one hand…
- Pfizer just raised its full year forecasts on strong demand for Eliquis and its cancer drugs. (Read)
- Q3 adjusted EPS came in at $0.87 versus $0.73 expected. Revenue hit $16.58 billion versus $15.87 billion expected.
On the other...
- The beat is real, but it’s not the story. Pfizer lifted 2026 guidance to $2.95–$3.05 in adjusted EPS and $62–$64 billion in revenue, but it’s still a company climbing out of its COVID hangover, not a growth engine firing on all cylinders.
- I think CEO Dr. Albert Bourla is out of his league and doesn’t seem to be making decisions as effectively or as profitably as competitors.
No thanks… until there’s a change in command.
Keith’s Investing Tip: Great CEOs count more than ever. You may not “like” him or her, but that’s on you if they’re delivering the goods and the numbers show it.
5 – Tempted to bail on midterms, here’s what the numbers say
It’s Election Day here in the US and millions of investors are busy trying to a) vote and b) second guess the markets.
Here’s what the numbers say.
According to Creative Planning’s Peter Mallouk, $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 in 1953 and held only under Republican presidents would be worth about $380,630 today. Held only under Democratic presidents, about $692,744.
Stay invested under both?
$26,367,875.
That’s not a typo. The biggest cost wasn’t picking the wrong party. It was sitting out.
Midterms prove the same point, just faster. Take a look.
Over the last 10 midterms, the S&P 500’s worst drop averaged 16.4%. The rebound 12 months after the low averaged 30.6%, nearly twice the size of the decline. And it’s 10-for-10.
Every selloff paid the investors who stayed.
Every selloff.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, this is precisely why I say volatility isn’t something to fear, but something smart investors use to advantage.
Keith’s Investing Tip: History shows very clearly that being invested in markets that may not be perfect beats waiting to invest in perfect markets.
Bottom Line
Most investors worry incessantly about everything that could go wrong while the world’s best investors constantly focus on what could go right.
Let that sink in.
Then, invest accordingly.
Buy the best, ignore the rest!®
You got this — I promise. 💯
As always, let’s MAKE it a great day!
Keith 😀
