☕ Writing Tesla off is a mistake, plus Nvidia, Lowe’s and inflation

Howdy! 👋 

Will September stink? 

Certainly seems that way this morning with all the red on the screen. 

I say it’s time to get busy even if there’s more selling to come. 

The markets are the only “store” on earth where people fear a sale. 

Here’s my playbook.  

1 – Writing Tesla off is a mistake 

The venerable Stuart Varney asked me about my two cents on the big events this week including the President’s take on 20% growth, Tesla and how to play three big earnings reports this week: Dell, Broadcom and Palo Alto – all of which I’m keeping an eye on. (Watch) 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Buy the future, survive the present. 

2 – Inflation schmation: here's what's really moving stocks today 

The US 10-year Treasury yield just touched its highest level since January 2025. (Read) 

Cue the FUD – Fear, uncertainty, doubt. 

I get it.  

Days like today can rattle even seasoned investors, and if your stomach’s in knots right now, you're in good company. That feeling is normal.  

What matters is what you do with it. 

Here's the good news. 

The media is filled with headlines trumpeting inflation fears, but what's actually happening under the hood is very technical and very mechanical – which means it's also very manageable once you understand it. 

Big traders are shedding stocks because rising rates make the "vig" more expensive, so all the money they borrow to ply their merry marauder agenda costs more. So they sell. 

Don't get distracted by their panic because their timeline isn't your timeline any more than all the selling that they’re doing is your problem. 

History shows very clearly that days like today can be a serious profit creator and a great buying opportunity, particularly if you want to add to specific stocks you may not own enough of or missed the first time around. Even a share at a time can make a difference over time. 

They're also wonderful if you like selling cash-secured puts like I do – a high-probability strategy that boils down to getting paid while you "shop." 

I suggest that you start with the names getting hit hardest because that’s where the best and most profitable opportunities tend to hide in plain sight. And, not for nothing, you can typically find the best premium. 

Contrary to what most of the investing public has been led to believe or simply wants to believe because they’re letting fear drive, volatility is your friend, not the enemy.  

Now, a gentle word to the wise. 

I don’t want you to play games because that’s a sure way to destroy the wealth you’re building. So please don't pretend to be a long-term investor, then in the same breath ask why specific investments haven’t “gone anywhere” in a matter of weeks on a time horizon shorter than your average cell phone contract. 

I understand both the feeling and the temptation – most investors wrestle with it at some point, including me. But if this sounds like you, take heart… recognizing what I am talking about is half the battle. 

Plus, it means that you’re paying attention, which already puts you ahead of most. 

That’s good on both counts. 

Still not jibing? 

Let me put it this way. 

Chances are good that you didn't arrive at grade school and immediately grasp calculus or plant an oak tree in your backyard only to watch it instantly become a fancy dining room table. 

Growth takes patience, and patience is a skill you're actively building every time you sit tight through a day like today. Profit potential, too. 😀 

You're doing better than you think! 

Keith's Investing Tip: Rates are for traders. Profits are for investors. Knowing who YOU are is a big part of the battle and key to your long-term success. 

3 – Lowe’s launches program to train skilled trades 

I LOVE this. 

Lowe’s Foundation is partnering with Nvidia, AT&T, GM and others with the goal of training 1 million skilled tradespeople over the next decade. (Read) 

America faces a shortage of 2 million skilled tradespeople that is – get this – already costing the American economy around $1 trillion a year according to various sources. 

I could make the argument that this will be great for Lowe’s, Home Depot and tool makers like Stanley Black & Decker. 

Hmmm. 🧐 

4 – Your UPS guy just got a brain transplant… from Nvidia 

A logistics company you've never heard of – OneRail – just teamed up with Nvidia to help retailers figure out the fastest, cheapest way to get your package to your door. (Read) 

Humans used to pick shipping routes and took 20 minutes or longer to do that. AI apparently does it in 2 minutes or less using data from over 12 million drivers and 1,000+ logistics partners. 

One customer – a tire distributor – is on a run rate that could save the company $40 million over three years just from better routing. 

MyPOV: Once again the story isn’t the delivery company or the app. It’s who gets paid no matter who wins the delivery war. And the answer is Nvidia. 

Sound familiar?  

That ought to. 

Palantir's been running this exact playbook from the very beginning, which is why, not surprisingly, customers cannot get enough of what Palantir does, which runs contrary to the naysayers who evidently can’t be bothered to understand what that really involves, and the kind of profit potential that comes with it. 

History suggests that there are 10-15 “Nvidias” and “Palantirs” out there right now and it’s your job to find ‘em then latch on and keep your money working for as long as possible as early in the game as possible.  

The One Bar Ahead® Family knows this all too well and people tell me that what they’ve learned has changed their lives because of it. If you’re good, then, well good! 😊 

5 – The widow-maker trade finally pays off 

Japan’s 10YR JGB just touched 3% for the first time this century and since 1996. (Read) 

Not that this is a surprise. 

Japan’s economy is sluggish, there are concerns about fiscal health, global impact on capital repatriation and what the move will mean for exporters. 

I’m more focused on the “widow-maker.” 

That’s what professionals call anybody trying to short JGBs, since the 1990s it’s been a career-ender for anyone who has tried it. Now, with the run to 3%, it’s finally working. 

Two trade ideas come to mind: 

1. Go long Japanese banks like Mizuho because it’s investable as opposed to just tradable. 
2. Buy one of the handful of JGB short ETPs that are a cleaner way to short JGB futures. Just be prepared for a high leverage, high pain trade if the BOJ caps yields (which they’ve done before).    

Bottom Line 

Work as hard as you can now.   

Invest.   

One day your money will repay the favour. 

You got this — I promise. 

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day. 

Keith 😀