☕ Micron: one of THE greatest quarters in history – now what?
Jun 25, 2026Howdy! 👋
Investing isn’t rocket science despite what many seem to think.
You find great companies, figure out what you want to pay and make your move.
Sometimes you hit the nail on the head but other times you swing and miss. Either way, you regroup, adjust and get back at it.
Why?
Because one simple truism always applies.
Scared money never makes money.
Here’s my playbook.
1 – Micron: one of THE greatest quarters in history
- Revenue more than quadrupled year over year. $41.46 billion versus $9.3 billion a year ago. (Read)
- Gross margins hit 84.9%.
- EPS of $25.11 against estimates of $20.28.
- Management guided next quarter to $50 billion — analysts were looking for $43.58 billion.
- Micron has signed 16 SCAs, with 14 of them representing roughly ~$100B in cumulative minimum revenue over the contract terms.
The stock is up ~17% as I type.
The math was never complicated.
AI demand is outstripping supply 15 to 1, perhaps more.
A few days ago Stuart Varney asked me on live TV if I'd buy Micron at $1,100. I said no — not because the company is bad, but because chasing FOMO is never a good recipe.
I wanted a pullback first.
We got one.
Down 9% pre-market the next morning.
That's when I flagged one of my favorite high-probability tactics in situations like this one… Selling cash-secured puts in Tuesday’s Five with Fitz.
High volatility = juicy premiums.
If you’re not familiar with the tactic, Selling Cash Secured Puts means – practically speaking – that you get paid to go shopping by selling puts at a deep discount to buyers who are betting on a sharp decline.
If the stock falls, you have an opportunity to buy at far lower prices but if it rises you have the opportunity to buy back your option at a far lower price and keep the difference as profit. Often within 24 hours or less when the stock (against which you’ve sold your put) rips higher.
Heads you can win, tails you can still win.
Here’s the rub.
Millions of aspiring “traders” and “investors” look down their noses at this strategy because it’s not exciting enough. Moreover, you don’t get to be “right” at the cocktail party.
I couldn’t care less.
Selling Cash Secured Puts can be inordinately profitable when done correctly with successful put sellers routinely achieving 40%, 50% or even 90% probability of profits.
I didn't predict the beat nor did I know that Micron was about to guide $50+ billion. Nobody did, not really — the Street was modeling $43.58 billion, and they came in nearly $7B light.
What I did know is that volatility was mispriced going into earnings - a binary event - and that a tactic like Selling Cash Secured Puts could give smart investors a way to get paid practically no matter which way the coin landed.
As crazy as it sounds Micron may have another massive run ahead.
Hmmm. 🤔
Keith’s Investing Tip: Aspiring traders and investors constantly obsess about being right but the world’s most successful focus on being profitable even if they’re dead wrong… and they use tactics(like selling cash secured puts) to help them control the outcome.
Trade Idea: Find a stock you want to buy – preferably one of the quality stocks we discuss frequently around here – and learn how to Sell Cash Secured Puts. Odds are great that your portfolio will thank you!
💡 OBAers – a quick reminder – the OBA Options Boot Camp Videos are now available!
2 – Why the Fed can’t seem to hit 2%
The Fed’s inflation target is a pipe dream.
Nobody but me will say that in polite conversation which is, now that I think about it, probably why I’ve never been on a sitting Fed Chair’s speed dial list.
I’m joshing, of course, but not by much.
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge keeps pointing at shelter as the primary driver of core PCE — and policymakers keep acting surprised.
That’s rich because they had a ‘uuuuuge role in creating this mess.
Shelter runs 16% of the PCE basket and it’s a delayed data input, which is why it’s not surprising that Core PCE is still printing at 3.4% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said "price stability" 12 times at his first press conference and the FOMC held rates at 3.50%–3.75% at the June 17th meeting.
Unanimous and unambiguous, he said.
Right. 🤦
Aggressive rate hikes crushed affordability, locked existing homeowners into their low-rate mortgages — very few people are selling — choked off new construction, squeezed rental supply, and kept shelter costs stubbornly elevated.
All of which keeps core PCE elevated and – ta da – gives ‘em cover to keep rates higher for longer.
Keith’s Investing Tip: Real estate can be great – especially for income investors - just do me a favour and buy choices that don’t depend on Fed rates for profitability.
3 – Where’s the beef? Reddit Raiders know
Wendy’s announced a new CFO on June 23, 2026. (Read)
Then Reddit got involved.
Trading volume exploded to 1,850% above its daily average. The stock closed Wednesday up 25%. Right now it's up another ~9%.
About 30% of Wendy's float was sold short as of late May — anything above 15–20% is considered elevated.
You may as well throw chum in the water to attract sharks.
When the Go Fast Crew sees that setup, they pile on deliberately, creating what’s called a “short squeeze” or “short burn” because that’s what it feels like if you’re pinned in the wrong direction by rapidly rising prices.
We’ve seen this movie before.
AMC, GameStop and Beyond Meat - all names that blitzed higher before dropping precipitously lower.
While it’s true that some folks will make a pile of money, odds are most are gonna get cooked faster than one of the company’s burgers.
Keith’s Investing Tip: The real lesson here isn't about Wendy's but about what happens when speculation masquerades as investing. Be sure you understand that difference.
4 – Bitcoin falling... again!
Just a few weeks ago, I told you bitcoin was going to find out who’d been swimming naked.
Warren Buffett’s phrase, not mine.
But I’ll borrow it.
At the time, bitcoin was already sliding – trading around $63,000. I pointed out that derivatives now make up roughly 73% of total crypto market volume. That there may be as much as $20 in phantom money stacked on top of every $1 actually invested in bitcoin.
It slid below $60,000 yesterday, the lowest level since 2024.
Now we're seeing why that matters.
When bitcoin broke below $62,000 earlier this month, leveraged long positions worth $1.5 billion were wiped out in a single day.
My guess is that another $397 - $410 million just got vaporized.
It doesn’t matter whether you “like” Bitcoin or even if you and I agree or not on where it goes next.
The point I want to make is that you’d be smart to understand the field of play or you’re very likely to get trampled when you least expect it – and loads of people are at the moment.
That’s why I continue to advocate choices “around” Bitcoin but not Bitcoin itself – and why I’m happy as a clam because of the income those choices kick off.
Keith’s Investing Tip: Sometimes what you don’t buy is every bit as important as what you do.
5 – Fraud Alert (Again)
I am almost embarrassed to bring this up but here we are.
It's come to my attention (yet again) that there are scammers out there pretending to be me on various social networks - including Facebook, WhatsApp, Telegram, Discord, Instagram, YouTube, X and other platforms where they're sending private direct messages (DMs) and texts.
A group calling itself the Dividend & Compound Investing Group is once again using my name, stolen images, trademarks, research and more to impersonate me with the goal of duping unsuspecting individuals into whatever criminal schemes they are promulgating.
We’ve repeatedly asked Meta and Facebook to take this group down but for reasons that defy explanation they have not. Perhaps the fact that Facebook own internal documents show that the company may generate $16B+ a year from fraud has something to do with it… but I digress. Sigh.
Let me be crystal clear once more:
❌ I do not solicit by Direct Message (DM) nor text which is why I will never DM or text you to sell you anything nor to ask for money, access, or participation in a private group.
❌ I do not offer 1-on-1 coaching
❌ I do not offer individualized investment advice
❌ I do not run copy trading or "trade cycle optimization" schemes
❌ I do not offer crypto-trading or other similar services
If you are sent to our real One Bar Ahead® order page by a message on Facebook/WhatsApp or other social media, you are being scammed. Please contact us before proceeding.
These messages are 100% fake.
They are not from me, and they are designed to scam you out of your money by impersonating my name, likeness, research, writing style - and yes, even using AI to clone my voice.
If you are contacted this way, it is a scam even if you are directed to our real sign-up page.
If you see a message like the ones I am describing, do not engage under any circumstances. Instead, please block and report immediately, including to law enforcement if necessary.
It's not me if it's not coming from my verified channels - the 5 with Fitz, YouTube, Instagram, X or directly through One Bar Ahead®.
Thanks for staying alert and helping protect the 5 with Fitz and One Bar Ahead® Families. 👊
Bottom Line
Your job as an investor or trader isn't to figure out where the markets go next. It's to recognize that they're in motion, then act on the signals created when that happens.
Now and as always, let's MAKE it a great day. 💯
You got this — I promise!
Keith 😀
