☕ Talking Microsoft, Palantir, Nvidia, Rocket Lab and Nike

Howdy! 👋 

It’s a holiday shortened week and we’re off to the races with all three indices in the green as I type. 

I have no idea if the averages will stay that way as leverage rises but I’m not particularly worried either, especially ahead of what I think may be a spectacular earnings season.

Earnings may top 22% if early indications are right. 

Always remember… 

The cost of missing opportunity is more expensive than trying to avoid risks you can’t control. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Time to buy Microsoft?  

I sat down with the venerable Stuart Varney ahead of the opening bell to talk about what July has in store.  

Many investors are prepared to write it off, but that’s a mistake. 

What they’re missing is key. 

July is a "best month" for the NYSE Composite, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 across both 10- and 20-year lookbacks. (Watch) 

2 – Why I’d still rather own almost anything but Comcast  

Not long ago I told you I'd rather own just about anything other than cable TV. (See #4) 

At the time I was talking about Versant — the company Comcast had just spun off to hold CNBC, USA Network, E!, Syfy, and the rest of its cable bundle leftovers. I said it would fall off a cliff; it's down roughly 11% since… not quite cliff-like but not inspiring either. 

Comcast is at it again.  

The company announced this morning that it's spinning off NBCUniversal, Peacock, Universal Studios, and Sky into a second new public company. What's left of Comcast will be a cable and internet business. (Read) 

Management has trotted out the same old buzzword bingo about how this move will unlock value and streamline focus. Shares are up 23% as I type which means that more than a few folks have (predictably) taken the bait. 

Me? 

I’d still rather own just about anything else. 

More than 30 million U.S. households have walked away from traditional pay TV since 2019, and linear TV ad spending is projected to drop from $60.6 billion in 2024 to $56.8 billion by 2027. 

No amount of fancy pants reorganization changes the underlying math which ultimately impacts revenue, earnings and – yep – stock price in that order. 🤦‍ 

3 – Nike: do investors a favor… please! 

Team Swoosh recently hit 52-week lows, down ~77% from the high of $175.50 on 5th November 2021. 

Gross margin fell from 41.5% in fiscal Q3 2025 to 40.2% in fiscal Q3 2026, net profit dropped 86% year-over-year, and the company is caught in a bind — cutting costs hurts the brand recovery but keeping spend up crushes the bottom line. 

Brands like Hoka and On Running – just to name two at random - are eating Nike’s lunch. 

I’ve encouraged investors to stay away for years. Honestly, I wish I didn’t have to do that because I love the brand and feel some allegiance to it given that I raced triathlon in Nike for years… but the turnaround is taking longer than expected.  

Tomorrow’s earnings land mid-World Cup, which should be the biggest branding event ever, but I think it could fall flat. Analysts have been slashing estimates, there's a new CFO — David Denton — coming in August even as CEO Elliott Hill has framed the current moment as the low point of "Win Now." 

It’s ~$40 but I’m thinking it could be $20 or a buyout candidate. 

Management ought to think seriously about doing shareholders a favor. 

LVMH has repeatedly signalled interest in premium sportswear, but Nike may be too far down stream now. That leaves Apollo/KKR/Blackstone which could take it private, fix the margin structure and introduce some desperately needed discipline before relisting in 3-5 years. 

Buy the best, ignore the rest.® 

Trade Idea: Short or just avoid. Putskies could be interesting particularly if there’s any kind of short-term “pop” after earnings. 🤔 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Sometimes what you don’t buy is more important than what you do. 

4 – Who the CIA calls when they need to run AI 

When the CIA needs to run AI — who do they call? 

Not Ghostbusters, though I’ve got to admit I still love the campy 80s flick and a part of me wishes they would. 

Here’s the thing. 

The CIA can't use ChatGPT. They can't send classified data to Google's servers. They can't trust a model they don't own and can't audit. 

Enter Palantir and Nvidia – two of my favorite investment choices. 

They’ve teamed up to announce an expansion of their sovereign AI partnership — this time focused squarely on deploying open AI models inside classified, air-gapped, and highly sensitive U.S. government environments. (Read) 

You know what to do and if for some reason you don’t but would appreciate some help, I’ll be here. Folks tell me that what they’ve learned as part of the One Bar Ahead® Family has changed their lives and given them the confidence to invest in today’s markets. 

5 – Rocket Lab just took a page from SpaceX’s playbook 

Rocket Lab has just announced that it’s snapping up Iridium for a cool $8 billion. (Read) 

Loads of folks are thinking this is “just another acquisition” but that’s a mistake. 

Investing in space just got way more interesting!  

This is right outta SpaceX’s playbook. 

Hooyah! 👏 

Bottom Line 

If you’re tempted to jump in and out of the markets because you’re worried about headlines – and I get that you might be given what’s going on in the world – I want you to read this.  

Aloud.  

The markets are great at making you uncomfortable in the short term if you’re in ‘em, and the best in the world at making you uncomfortable longer-term if you’re not. 

Now and as always, let's MAKE it a great day and start the week strong. 💯 

You got this — I promise! 

Keith 😀